CLIMATE CHANGE IS CAUSED BY THE PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION, NOT BY CARBON DIOXIDE


             
                                                                                  
                                              http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/     
 
 
      The analysis of minimum temperature data using the PDO as a reference baseline has been demonstrated as a powerful technique for climate trend evaluation. This technique may be extended to other regions using the appropriate local ocean surface temperature reference. The analysis found no evidence for CO2 induced warming trends in the California data. This confirms prior ‘Null Hypothesis’ work that it is impossible for a 100 ppm increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration to cause any climate change.
 

CONCLUSIONS

The dominant factor that determines the climate of the State of California is the variation in N. Pacific Ocean temperatures related to the PDO. This has been clearly demonstrated by an analysis of the long term minimum temperature data from 34 widely spaced California weather stations. The PDO record provides a baseline that can be used to identify urban heat island effects and anomalous data in the station records. This provides a powerful technique for investigating climate change in California and may be extended to other Western States and other areas of the world where there is an ocean influence on the climate that may be used to provide a local reference. Unexplained ‘adjustments’ made to weather station records for use in climate trend analysis have now become a major concern.

[7,8] This technique may also provide an independent reference for the analysis of climate trends in weather station data to detect such ‘adjustments’. This analysis used a simple linear fit to the station data. By combining the weather station data with other meteorological data and climate simulations, a more detailed analysis of the effect the PDO and other factors on the climate of the State of California may be performed. However, this is not a ‘one size fits all’ approach and each data set needs to be examined carefully on a case by case basis to evaluate all of the factors that may bias the data. These results also confirm earlier work which demonstrated that it was impossible for the observed changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration to cause any climate change.[2] There is no CO2 ‘signature’ in any of the temperature records that were analyzed. The recent decrease in the PDO with the triple peak ‘signature’ from 1985 onwards is clearly visible in most of the temperature data sets. Predictions for CO2 induced global warming indicate a monotonically increasing ‘equilibrium surface temperature’ for this period. The empirical concept of CO2 induced global warming has no basis in the physical reality of climate change.

R

EFERENCES

1. Oke T. R., WMO/TD-No. 1250, ‘

Initial guidance to obtain representative meteorological observations at urban sites’, World Meteorological Association, 2006.

2. Clark, R., Energy and Environment

21(4) 171-200 (2010), ‘A null hypothesis for CO2’.

3. D’Aleo, J Effects of AMO and PDO on temperatures Intellicast, May 2008. http://www.intellicast.com/Community/Content.aspx?a=127.

4. http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/Climsum.html Western Region climate data.

5. http://www.piercecollegeweather.com/ Pierce College weather station data.

6. http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest, Pacific Decadal Index from 1900.

7. D’Aleo, J. ‘

Progressive Enhancement of Global Temperature Trends’, Science and Public Policy Institute, July 2010. http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/originals/progressive_enhancement.html.

8. Quayle, R. G., Easterlin, D. R., Karl, T. R. and Hughes, P. Y., Effects of recent thermometer changes in the cooperative station network, Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 1991,

72(11) 1718-1723.

 

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One Response to CLIMATE CHANGE IS CAUSED BY THE PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION, NOT BY CARBON DIOXIDE

  1. peter says:

    Could this be teh reason mz gillard has said carbon reduction scheme would be re thinked or earlier election promises may not be honoured!

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